The notion of Tom Holland taking on the iconic role of 007 has been a persistent topic among fans and entertainment media, but prediction markets tell a different story. On Polymarket, the only platform with active trading on this event, the contract for Holland being named the next James Bond sits at 0% probability, with over $271,000 in volume. This near-unanimous rejection reflects a market consensus that the 28-year-old actor, best known for his portrayal of Spider-Man, is not in contention for the role.
No other prediction platforms—Kalshi or Manifold—offer contracts on this specific outcome, making Polymarket the sole source of data. The lack of any positive probability suggests that traders see the casting as highly improbable, likely due to Holland's youth and established superhero franchise commitments. Without any recent news headlines to drive a shift, the odds have remained static, indicating a stable market view that the next Bond will be a different actor entirely.
The high volume on Polymarket underscores significant trader interest, yet the 0% probability has held firm, with no signs of movement. This contrasts with other Bond-related markets, such as those for Aaron Taylor-Johnson or Idris Elba, which have seen more varied probabilities. For now, the market is clear: Tom Holland is not the expected choice for Her Majesty's Secret Service.