Despite a lack of recent political turmoil or major scandals, prediction market participants are betting heavily that Sir Keir Starmer will remain as UK Prime Minister through the mid-2026 deadline. The Polymarket contract, which has attracted $5.7 million in volume, shows a 20% probability that Starmer will be out of office by June 30, 2026—implying an 80% chance he stays. This contrasts with historical volatility in British politics, where leadership changes have sometimes been abrupt. The absence of data from Kalshi or Manifold limits cross-platform comparison, but the high volume on Polymarket suggests a relatively confident market. No specific external trigger was identified in today's news flow, leaving the odds stable. Traders appear to view Starmer's position as secure, with no immediate threats from internal party challenges or electoral pressures.