The political future of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is being closely watched on Polymarket, where a contract asking whether he will be out of office by June 30, 2026, has attracted $6.1 million in volume. As of the latest data, traders see a 41% chance of his departure—whether by resignation, party ouster, or general election defeat—meaning the market's baseline expectation is that Starmer will remain in Number 10 past that date. No other major prediction platforms, such as Kalshi or Manifold, currently offer contracts on this specific question, limiting cross-platform comparison. The lack of recent news headlines directly tied to Starmer's tenure suggests the probability reflects broader political sentiment rather than a specific triggering event. The 59% implied probability of survival is notable given the typical volatility of UK politics, but it remains a moderate level of confidence, leaving room for shifts as the 2026 deadline approaches.