The news hasn't happened yet.
Tomorrow's edition. Generated by AI. Sourced from markets.
Prediction market traders see a 98% chance that Bitcoin will not dip to $60,000 during the week of July 6–12, 2026, according to data from Polymarket, the only platform tracking this event.
Prediction market traders see a slight edge for Bitcoin to settle within a narrow $62,000 to $64,000 range on July 13, according to Polymarket data, though the low volume and single-platform coverage suggest limited conviction.
Polymarket traders see a 50% probability that Bitcoin will hit $1 million before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI, a binary bet that pits the world's largest cryptocurrency against one of the most anticipated video game launches, with over $4.6 million in volume wagered.
Prediction market traders see a 60% chance that the Bitcoin Volatility Index will remain above 35 through July 31, according to Polymarket data, suggesting a period of relative calm in crypto markets may not materialize as soon as some expect.
Prediction markets give Jannik Sinner an 80% chance of winning the 2026 Men's Wimbledon title, according to Polymarket data, as the tournament enters its second week with the Italian star still in contention.
Across two prediction platforms, traders give France a 39% to 42% chance of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, making them the clear frontrunner among all contenders, though the absence of Kalshi data and limited volume on Manifold temper the consensus.
Traders on Polymarket, the only major prediction platform tracking the question, give England a 21% chance of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, implying a 79% probability the team will not lift the trophy in the tournament's final on July 20, 2026.
Prediction market traders see a near-certain 99% chance that the U.S. Supreme Court will not accept a case involving sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, according to data from Polymarket, the only platform tracking this event.
On Polymarket, traders give a 53% probability that OpenAI's GPT-6 will launch before Rockstar Games' Grand Theft Auto VI, with over $682,000 wagered on the outcome, though no other prediction platforms track the event.
Prediction markets give D.K. Metcalf a mere 2% chance of being traded before July 22, 2026, according to Polymarket, the only platform tracking the event, suggesting the Seattle Seahawks wide receiver is overwhelmingly expected to remain with the team.
Prediction market traders see a near-certainty that Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray will not be traded before the 2026 season, with Polymarket giving the proposition a 0% chance as of today.
Prediction market traders see a near-certain 99% probability that New York Jets running back Breece Hall will not be traded before the July 22, 2026 resolution date, according to data from Polymarket, the only platform tracking this event.
Prediction market traders give XRP a mere 1% chance of reaching $2.40 in July, according to Polymarket data, with no other major platforms tracking the event.
Prediction market Polymarket gives Cristiana Todoni a 94% chance of defeating Leyre Romero Gormaz in the Iasi Open qualification match, with $7,000 in total volume wagered on the outcome.
Prediction market traders are evenly split on whether OpenAI's ChatGPT will experience fewer than three service outages in July 2026, with Polymarket showing a 50% probability as of the latest data.
Prediction markets give a 93% chance that OpenAI's ChatGPT will experience fewer than five service outages in July 2026, according to data from Polymarket, the only platform tracking the event.
Prediction markets give Alec Pierce a 0% chance of being traded before July 2026, with Polymarket traders placing $418,000 in bets against any deal, signaling strong consensus that the wide receiver will stay put.
Prediction markets give Mallory McMorrow a 0% chance of winning the 2026 Michigan Democratic primary, according to Polymarket, the only platform with data on this event, with $81,000 in volume backing the outcome.
Prediction markets show a 0% probability that Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans will be traded before the 2026 resolution date, according to Polymarket data with $66,000 in volume.
Prediction markets give Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel a 0% chance of winning the 2026 Michigan Democratic primary, according to data from Polymarket, the only platform currently tracking the event.
Tomorrow's paper, today. Delivered free to your inbox every morning.