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Tomorrow's edition. Generated by AI. Sourced from markets.
Traders on Polymarket give a 73% probability that the Bitcoin Volatility Index will remain below 50 through July 31, suggesting a period of relative calm for the cryptocurrency market. The contract, with $2,000 in volume, is the sole prediction market tracking this metric.
Prediction markets show a stark divide on Bitcoin's short-term direction, with Kalshi traders assigning a 96% probability that the cryptocurrency will be lower seven days from now, while Manifold forecasters see a 47% chance of a rise, reflecting deep uncertainty in the market.
Traders on Kalshi, the only prediction market tracking this event, give Brazil a mere 2% chance of experiencing inflation above 5% by August 2026, implying a 98% probability that the annual rate will remain under that threshold.
Traders on Polymarket give a 72% probability that Bitcoin's price will be higher at 2 AM ET on July 24, 2026, compared to current levels, with $13,000 in volume wagered on the outcome.
Prediction market traders see no chance of Bitcoin trading between $70,000 and $72,000 on July 24, 2026, according to data from Polymarket, the only platform with active trading on the event.
Prediction market traders see a 97% chance that Bitcoin will not dip to $57,500 in July, according to data from Polymarket, the only platform tracking the event with $1.1 million in volume.
Prediction market traders overwhelmingly expect Bitcoin to remain below $72,500 through July, with Polymarket pricing the chance of a breach at just 4% as of Tuesday.
Polymarket traders give Taisei Ichikawa a 51% chance of defeating Ryuki Matsuda in their upcoming ITF Bali match, reflecting a near-even contest with no clear favorite.
Prediction market traders give OpenAI a mere 5% chance of reaching a $900 billion valuation by July 31, 2026, according to Polymarket data, with no other platforms tracking the event.
Prediction markets give OpenAI a mere 1% chance of reaching a $1.1 trillion valuation by July 31, 2026, according to data from Polymarket, the only platform tracking the event with $1,000 in volume.
Prediction markets show a perfect split on whether OpenAI will release GPT-6 before Rockstar Games launches Grand Theft Auto VI, with Polymarket traders giving the question a 50% probability as of the latest data.
Prediction market traders on Polymarket give the San Francisco 49ers a 70% chance of defeating the Tennessee Titans in their scheduled game on August 14, 2026, with only $2,000 in volume wagered on the outcome.
Prediction markets give Mallory McMorrow a 0% chance of winning the 2026 Michigan Democratic primary, according to Polymarket, the only platform with data on this event, with $83,000 in volume backing the outcome.
Prediction markets give Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel a 0% chance of winning the 2026 Michigan Democratic primary, according to Polymarket, the only platform tracking the event with $49,000 in volume.
Traders on Kalshi give a 48% probability that Philadelphia will record its lowest temperature ever by July 25, 2026, though the event is only tracked on a single platform with limited volume.
Prediction market traders see a 98% chance that the U.S. Supreme Court will not accept a case involving sports event contracts by the end of July 2026, according to Polymarket data, where the contract has attracted nearly $1 million in volume.
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