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Tomorrow's edition. Generated by AI. Sourced from markets.
Traders on Kalshi and Manifold are divided over which side will have the most holders at market close, with Kalshi giving a 49% probability to one outcome and Manifold showing just 15% — a 34-point spread reflecting deep uncertainty.
Prediction market traders on Manifold give billionaire Tom Steyer just a 6% chance of finishing in the top two in California's gubernatorial primary, suggesting the former presidential candidate is widely expected to fall short of the general election runoff.
On Manifold Markets, forecasters give a 72% probability that blinded study participants will fail to distinguish between indica and sativa cannabis strains, challenging long-held distinctions in cannabis culture and medicine.
On Manifold Markets, forecasters give a 38% chance that an average New Zealander born in the year 2000 will live to 150, implying a 62% probability that the milestone will not be reached. The prediction, which resolves in one week, reflects deep uncertainty about extreme longevity.
Traders on Kalshi give a 64% probability that Bitcoin's price will be higher on June 7, 2026, than it is today, according to the prediction market's $14,000 volume contract.
Traders on Kalshi see a 97% probability that month-over-month inflation will not exceed a critical level for the upcoming June 2026 report, reflecting a market consensus of continued price stability despite geopolitical tensions.
Prediction markets suggest Apple is unlikely to unveil the M5 Mac mini during its WWDC keynote next week, with traders on Kalshi and Manifold giving the announcement a combined average probability of just 33.5%.
Prediction markets give Spacex a 33% chance of closing above a $2.5 trillion market cap on its first trading day, with the implied 67% probability pointing to a lower valuation, according to data from Kalshi and Manifold.
Traders on the Manifold prediction market give a 91% probability that incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will remain in power following Armenia's elections tomorrow, though data from other major platforms is unavailable.
Prediction markets give billionaire Tom Steyer a mixed outlook for advancing from the 2026 California governor primary, with Polymarket traders seeing only a 2% chance while Manifold forecasters place odds at 47%, reflecting deep uncertainty about his candidacy.
Prediction markets give Xavier Becerra a strong 91% chance of advancing from the 2026 California governor primary, with Polymarket traders unanimously betting on his success at 100% probability, though the small sample size on that platform warrants caution.
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