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Tomorrow's edition. Generated by AI. Sourced from markets.
Prediction markets give zero probability to any US state legislature voting on secession by June 30, 2026, according to Polymarket, the only platform tracking this event.
Prediction markets give xAI effectively no chance of claiming the second-best AI model by the end of June 2026, with Polymarket traders assigning a 0% probability to the event.
Prediction markets give Google a 27% chance of having the second-best AI model by the end of June 2026, according to data from Polymarket, suggesting traders broadly expect the tech giant to trail competitors in the rapidly evolving artificial intelligence landscape.
Prediction markets give Bitcoin a 0% chance of reaching $100,000 in June, according to Polymarket data, with no other platforms tracking the event.
Prediction markets give OpenAI a mere 2% chance of retaining the top AI model position by the end of June 2026, with Polymarket traders betting heavily against the current leader maintaining its edge.
Prediction markets give Jia Yueting, the embattled founder of LeEco and Faraday Future, a mere 1% chance of entering mainland China by June 30, according to Polymarket data, reflecting deep skepticism about his return amid ongoing legal and financial troubles.
Prediction markets give roughly a two-in-three chance that Apple will not announce an M5 Mac mini during the WWDC keynote, with Kalshi traders assigning a 19% probability of an announcement and Manifold forecasters seeing a 35% chance, yielding an average of 35% across platforms.
Prediction markets give Google roughly a 1-in-3 chance of having the best AI model by the end of June 2026, with a stark divide between platforms: Polymarket traders see only an 11% probability, while Manifold forecasters are more optimistic at 48%, yielding an average of 30%.
Prediction markets give a 91% probability that OpenAI's market capitalization will fall short of the $750 billion threshold on its IPO day, according to data from Polymarket and Manifold.
Prediction markets give OpenAI's IPO just a 13% chance of reaching a market capitalization between $1.25 trillion and $1.5 trillion on its first day of trading, suggesting investors expect a valuation below that range.
Prediction markets give Tesla a mere 6% chance of launching robotaxis in California by June 30, 2026, according to Polymarket, the only platform tracking the event with $108K in volume.
Prediction markets give Microsoft a 0% chance of being the world's largest company by market capitalization on June 30, 2026, according to Polymarket, the only platform with active trading on the event.
Prediction markets give DeepSeek virtually no chance of claiming the best AI model title by the end of June 2026, with Polymarket traders placing a 0% probability on the outcome across $816,000 in volume.
Prediction markets give Mistral AI virtually no chance of having the best AI model by the end of June 2026, with Polymarket traders placing the probability at just 0.1% on over $800,000 in volume.
Traders on Polymarket see a 0% chance that Meituan will have the best AI model by the end of June 2026, with $752,000 wagered on the outcome. No other prediction platforms currently track this event.
Prediction markets give Thomas Murphy a 0% chance of winning the Republican nomination for Senate in South Carolina, according to Polymarket data, with no other platforms tracking the event.
Prediction markets give Abelardo de la Espriella an 84% chance of winning the 2026 Colombian presidential election, according to Polymarket, the only platform with active trading on the event, where volume has reached $3.1 million.
Traders on Polymarket give Ivan Cepeda Castro a 16% chance of winning Colombia's 2026 presidential election, suggesting the opposition senator faces an uphill battle against a field that remains undefined but heavily favored to produce a different winner.
Prediction markets give a 99% probability that former President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will not meet in Russia before June 2026, according to data from Polymarket, the only platform tracking the event.
Prediction markets give a 99% probability that former President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will not meet in China before June 2026, according to data from Polymarket, the only platform tracking the event.
Prediction markets give the New York Knicks a narrow edge over the San Antonio Spurs in Game 3 of the NBA Finals, with Polymarket traders assigning a 46% chance to the Spurs and Manifold forecasters a 54% probability for the Knicks, reflecting a tight contest.
Traders on Polymarket see a 100% probability that Storm Hunter will qualify for the HSBC Championships on June 13, 2026, with $263K in volume backing the outcome, though no data is available from Kalshi or Manifold.
Prediction markets give Hanyu Guo a 99% chance of defeating Elsa Jacquemot in the HSBC Championships qualification match on June 13, 2026, according to Polymarket data.
Polymarket traders are unanimous in their expectation that Tatjana Maria will defeat Yuriko Miyazaki in the HSBC Championships qualification round on June 13, 2026, with a 100% probability on $87K in volume.
Prediction markets give Alberts Smits a mere 1% chance of being selected first overall in the 2026 NHL Draft, according to Polymarket, the only platform tracking the event with $33,000 in volume.
Prediction markets give Ethan Belchetz just a 1% chance of being selected first overall in the 2026 NHL Draft, according to data from Polymarket, the only platform tracking the event.
Prediction markets give Mathis Preston just a 1% chance of being selected first overall in the 2026 NHL Draft, according to Polymarket, the only platform tracking the event, with $4,000 in volume wagered against the prospect.
Prediction markets give Darius Acuff Jr. just a 3% chance of being selected 4th overall in the 2026 NBA Draft, according to Polymarket, the only platform tracking the event.
Prediction markets give a 99% probability that Discord's market capitalization will be above $15 billion at the close of its IPO day, according to Polymarket data, with $304,000 in trading volume.
Prediction markets give Callum Turner a mere 3% chance of being named the next James Bond, according to Polymarket data, making it highly likely that the actor will not land the iconic role.
Prediction market traders see a near-certain outcome for Freddie Mac's initial public offering, giving just a 1% chance that the mortgage giant's market capitalization will reach $300 billion or more on its first day of trading, according to data from Polymarket.
Prediction markets give Amazon a 0% chance of becoming the world's largest company by market capitalization on June 30, 2026, according to Polymarket, the only platform tracking this event with $3.5 million in volume.
Prediction markets are evenly split on whether Maria will cover a -1.5 game handicap against Miyazaki in their upcoming match, with Polymarket traders assigning a 50% probability to the outcome.
Prediction markets show a stark divide on President Emmanuel Macron's political future, with Polymarket traders giving a 99% probability he remains in office through June 30, 2026, while Manifold forecasters see a 65% chance of his departure by that date.
Prediction market traders see a 94% chance that XRP will trade outside the $1.20 to $1.30 range on June 8, 2026, according to data from Polymarket, the only platform tracking the event.
Prediction markets give Mexico an 11% chance of defeating South Africa by exactly 3-0 in their 2026 World Cup group stage match, meaning traders see an 89% likelihood of any other outcome — a different scoreline, draw, or South African victory.
On Manifold Markets, forecasters give a 72% probability that blinded study participants will not be able to reliably distinguish between indica and sativa cannabis strains, challenging long-held beliefs in the cannabis industry.
Across prediction markets, traders assign a 99% probability that no country will leave NATO by June 30, 2026, reflecting strong confidence in the alliance's stability despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Prediction markets give Tesla a 0% chance of becoming the world's largest company by market capitalization by June 30, 2026, according to Polymarket, the only platform with data on this event.
Prediction markets are unanimously betting on McCabe to take the first set in the upcoming match against Jong, with Polymarket traders assigning a 100% probability to this outcome.
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