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Tomorrow's edition. Generated by AI. Sourced from markets.
Prediction market data from Kalshi indicates a 0% probability that the Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) will rise above 4.00% by July 1, 2026, implying traders see a near-certain expectation that rates will remain below that threshold.
Prediction markets give Bitcoin a mere 3% chance of trading between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 25, 2026, according to Polymarket data, implying a 97% probability that the cryptocurrency will settle outside that narrow band.
Traders on Kalshi, the only prediction market tracking the Strait of Hormuz's return to normal traffic, give an 82% probability that shipping will not resume normal operations by July 2026, reflecting deep skepticism despite recent diplomatic overtures.
Prediction market traders see an 88% chance that OpenAI's market capitalization will fall short of the $1.25 trillion to $1.5 trillion range on its IPO day, according to Polymarket data, suggesting the AI giant's public debut may be more modest than some bullish forecasts.
Prediction market traders on Polymarket give OpenAI a mere 9% chance of achieving a market capitalization between $1 trillion and $1.25 trillion at the close of its initial public offering day, implying a 91% probability the AI giant will debut below or above that range.
Prediction market traders on Polymarket give OpenAI just a 2% chance of retaining the top AI model crown by the end of June 2026, suggesting a dramatic shift in the competitive landscape over the next two years.
Prediction markets give DeepSeek a negligible chance of claiming the top AI model spot by the end of June 2026, with Polymarket traders assigning a 0% probability to the event, reflecting deep skepticism about the Chinese startup's ability to outpace established leaders.
Prediction markets give Mathis Preston a mere 1% chance of being selected first overall in the 2026 NHL Draft, according to Polymarket data, making it nearly certain that another prospect will claim the top spot.
Prediction market traders on Polymarket are unanimous in their assessment that Swedish prospect Viggo Björck will not be selected first overall in the 2026 NHL Draft, with the contract trading at 0% probability on the platform.
Prediction market traders are overwhelmingly confident that Gavin McKenna will be the top pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, with Polymarket giving the prospect a 99% chance of going first overall.
Prediction markets give Alberts Smits a mere 1% chance of being selected first overall in the 2026 NHL Draft, according to data from Polymarket, the only platform tracking this event.
Prediction markets give Ilya Morozov a mere 1% chance of being selected first overall in the 2026 NHL Draft, according to Polymarket data, suggesting the young prospect is overwhelmingly expected to fall to a later pick.
Prediction markets give Adam Nemec just a 1% chance of being selected first overall in the 2026 NHL Draft, according to Polymarket data, with traders overwhelmingly betting against the young prospect topping the class.
Prediction markets give Carson Carels a 0% chance of being selected first overall in the 2026 NHL Draft, according to Polymarket data, with no other platforms tracking the event.
Prediction markets give Brooks Rogowski a 0% chance of being the first overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, according to Polymarket, the only platform tracking the event with $6,000 in volume.
Prediction market traders on Polymarket see zero chance that Mikey Berchild will be selected first overall in the 2026 NHL Draft, with the contract trading at $0.00 on $3,000 in volume.
Despite hosting the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the United States men's national team is given just a 4% chance of winning the tournament, according to Polymarket traders, with over $98 million wagered on the outcome.
Prediction markets give Croatia a mere 1% chance of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to data from Polymarket, where the contract has attracted $77.3 million in trading volume. No other major platforms track this event, leaving Polymarket as the sole source of probabilistic insight.
Prediction markets give Morocco a mere 2% chance of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to data from Polymarket, where the contract has attracted over $69 million in trading volume.
Prediction market traders see a 96% chance that Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce will not be traded before the July 2026 resolution date, according to data from Polymarket, the only platform tracking the event.
Prediction markets give a 93% chance that no actor will be announced as the next James Bond by June 30, 2026, according to Polymarket data, reflecting a prolonged casting process for the iconic role.
Prediction markets give actor Callum Turner a mere 2% chance of being named the next James Bond, with Polymarket traders overwhelmingly betting against his casting as the iconic British spy.
Prediction markets give Czechia no chance of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with Polymarket traders placing the probability at exactly 0% on a contract with $57.5 million in volume.
Prediction markets give D.K. Metcalf a mere 3% chance of being traded before July 2026, according to Polymarket data, suggesting the wide receiver is overwhelmingly expected to remain with the Seattle Seahawks through the end of his current contract.
Prediction markets give Breece Hall a mere 1% chance of being traded before July 2026, according to Polymarket data, suggesting the New York Jets running back is overwhelmingly expected to stay put.
Prediction markets give South Korea virtually no chance of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with Polymarket traders assigning a 0% probability to the Asian powerhouse lifting the trophy in the tournament scheduled to conclude on July 20, 2026.
Prediction markets give Ivory Coast a 0% chance of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to Polymarket data with $90.3 million in volume, as the tournament progresses without the African side in contention.
Prediction markets give the Democratic Republic of Congo a 0% chance of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to Polymarket, the only platform tracking the event with $83.4 million in volume.
Prediction markets give Egypt a 0% chance of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with Polymarket traders placing over $78.7 million in bets that reflect overwhelming skepticism about the Pharaohs' prospects.
Prediction markets give Cape Verde a 0% chance of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to data from Polymarket, the only platform tracking this event, with over $75.9 million in volume backing the island nation's long-shot odds.
Prediction markets give Ecuador a 0% chance of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to Polymarket, the only platform with active trading on the event, where volume has reached $70.7 million.
Prediction markets give Canada a 0% chance of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to Polymarket, the only platform tracking the event with $67.7 million in volume.
Prediction markets give Austria a 0% chance of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to data from Polymarket, where the contract has attracted $66.9 million in volume. No other major platforms track this event, but the consensus is clear: traders see no path to victory for the Austrian national team.
Prediction markets give Scotland a 0% chance of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with Polymarket traders placing $66 million in bets that the nation will not lift the trophy.
Prediction markets give Uzbekistan a 0% chance of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to data from Polymarket, where the contract has attracted $61.5 million in volume. No other platforms currently track this event.
Prediction markets give Bosnia-Herzegovina a 0% chance of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to Polymarket, the only platform tracking the event with $47.1 million in volume.
Prediction market traders see a 98% chance that OpenAI's ChatGPT will not experience exactly three service outages in June 2026, according to data from Polymarket, the only platform tracking this event.
Traders on Polymarket give Barcelona a 56% chance of defeating Valencia in their upcoming fixture, according to the only prediction market currently tracking this event.
Despite swirling fan speculation, prediction markets give Josh O'Connor a 0% chance of being named the next James Bond, with Polymarket traders placing $73,000 in bets against the casting.
Despite persistent fan speculation, prediction markets give Henry Cavill virtually no chance of being announced as the next James Bond, with Polymarket traders placing a 0% probability on the casting as of today.
Prediction market traders see no chance of French President Emmanuel Macron leaving office before June 30, 2026, with Polymarket data showing a 0% probability of his departure, reflecting broad confidence in his political stability.
Prediction markets give a 0% chance that Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray will be traded before July 2026, according to Polymarket, the only platform tracking the event with $443,000 in volume.
Despite swirling fan speculation, prediction market Polymarket gives Tom Holland a 0% chance of being announced as the next James Bond by June 2026, with over $271,000 wagered on the outcome.
Despite swirling fan speculation, prediction markets give James Norton a 0% chance of being announced as the next James Bond by June 2026, with Polymarket traders betting heavily against the British actor landing the iconic role.
Traders on Polymarket are unanimously betting that Freddie Mac's market capitalization will exceed $150 billion at the close of its initial public offering day, with the contract showing a 0% probability of the opposite outcome across $94,000 in volume.
Prediction markets give zero chance that James Collier will be announced as the next James Bond, with Polymarket traders placing $70,000 in bets against the possibility.
Prediction markets give a 100% probability that Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans will not be traded before the 2026 season, according to Polymarket, the only platform tracking the event.
Prediction markets give zero chance that actor Theo James will be announced as the next James Bond by June 30, 2026, according to Polymarket data, with no other platforms tracking the event.
Prediction markets give a 0% chance that Alix Earle and Tom Brady will confirm a relationship by June 30, 2026, according to Polymarket, the only platform tracking the event.
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